Oscar Day!

I'll be back this evening with the official Darby O'Shea liveblog (hooray!), but first, let's get our little brains going about what to expect tonight.

The Fashion
Gabourey Sidibe: She's famously plus-sized and doesn't seem to fit into either category of 'flaunt it' or 'self-flagellate because of it,' a fact which is refreshing in and of itself. However however will Hollywood dress a fat girl for the Oscars? This blogger does a good job of summing up why Marchesa is both such a predictable (she dresses everyone) and shocking (she's never dressed anyone above a size six) choice for Gabby.

The Newcomers: Carey Mulligan and Anna Kendrick: They've thrilled and inspired question marks with their Red Carpet choices already this season, but what will they wear to the Oscars?! The fug girls say it better than I ever could.

What I'll be looking for: Obviously, the crazies (the starlets, not the movie). Who will come closest to approximating Björk's Swan Dress (is Gaga attending this event)? The old stand-bys. I expect to see people like Demi Moore and Julia Roberts and Jennifer Aniston in slinky black numbers (if they're all in attendance). The (C)Kates (Blanchett and Winslet) had better thrill as ever. Can Helen Mirren live up to her fabulous (dead sexy) custom Lacroix from last year? (Probably. We should all be that hot at 65!)

But most importantly: Christian Siriano dressed Christina Hendricks for the Golden Globes (with spectacular results including cheers and jeers, and many 'golden globes' jokes). But will he dress anyone for the Oscars? If yes, who?!

The Awards

The New voting system: The sound bite I keep hearing is that, with ten nominees and a 'one vote' system, a movie could win best picture with only 11% of the vote. If you think back to other years where there were two front runners and a surprising third movie won, you can imagine how this minority-wins situation could be shocking with ten nominees. So, now the voters (oh, how I wish I were one) RANK the ten movies. USAToday has a reasonable explanation of it over here. What does it all mean, though? If enough people rank Avatar at 10 because James Cameron turns people off, could it lose because of the new system?

Best Picture: Full Disclosure: I've been a bad movie fan and I've only seen four of the ten nominees. I'm hanging my head. However, that doesn't mean that I don't have opinions on the matter!
10: I saw Avatar. It's fine, it's beautiful, but I don't believe that it should win best picture. It should win every technical award it's up for because it's technically amazing. But it should be satisfied without the big prize. (I'm not ranking it 10 because I think it's the least good of this very good batch of movies, but because I really don't like James Cameron - you see how this could work with the new voting system? - and because I vehemently believe that something that poorly written shouldn't win just because it had cool technology.)
9: District 9. I didn't see it and I don't care.
8: I didn't see The Blind Side (which I amusingly keep mistyping as the Bling Side), but it reads a little too big-screen Lifetime TV for Women.
7: I haven't seen A Serious Man. I don't have much to say about it, except that between it and A Single Man, I've been confused for months.
6: An Education has been at the top of my will-see list for ages, but I still haven't seen it. The style, though, makes me a little weak in the knees.
5: I didn't see Precious, but its brave subject matter and casting decisions win it a place in my heart already. Also, I would personally front the money for a TV show or something featuring Gabourey Sidibe. I love her. Also, Mo'Nique's GG acceptance speech was pure gold. All that being said, does courage and non-traditional casting equal best picture? Though it would be nice if an indie film would win. Been a while since that happened.
4: I also saw Up, which I think is a brilliant movie. I would be absolutely okay with it beating Avatar. But I still don't think it should win.
3: Up in the Air was an astonishing and utterly satisfying movie. It wouldn't upset me in the least if it won. I don't think it will, though.
2: We're going to watch The Hurt Locker at 3:50 (ET) today. I'll report back, though I have a hunch it's a damn fine movie.
1: And finally, I think I want Inglourious Basterds to win. It's so refreshing to see a movie about the Nazis that isn't overwrought and Historical and self-flagellating (I'm thinking of Der Untergang et al). Also, it was beautiful, brilliantly acted, and really REALLY well written. I also recognize that it probably won't win, but that's my vote.

Most of the other categories seem like a lock, but I think there is most room for a surprise in the Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress categories. Best Actor seems like a lock for Jeff Bridges, but could Colin Firth or George Clooney squeak out an upset? And what if they should decide it's Morgan Freeman's turn? In Best Actress, the front runners seem to be Sandra Bullock (which I still can't believe) and Meryl Streep (my personal preference), but Helen Mirren is always a formidable force. In Supporting Actress, I have NO idea who will win. Dan says Anna Kendrick is going to be the evening's surprise winner. I think Mo'Nique has the best chance (she's won every award she's been up for this year), but Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick were fabulous and Maggie Gyllenhaal was amazing in Crazy Heart (that was an effing amazing movie). So, I just don't know.

Those are just a few things to chew on while preparing for the broadcast tonight. What I'll be watching:
3:50 PM (ET): The Hurt Locker (on DVD)
6:00 PM (ET): E! Red Carpet Coverage (where I'll be commenting on Giuliana Rancic's diet and body issues again - bad feminist)
7:00 PM (ET): Baba Wawa's last Oscars Special on ABC
8:00 PM (ET): The Broadcast on ABC.

Stay tuned here and comment away!